As a photographer I obviously have a vested interest in the publishing world, so naturally every day I read about all the layoffs and I cringe a little. But I have to admit, through it all I hear a familiar ring.
About four or five years ago it seemed like the photography world was in complete uproar. The Digital Revolution was in full swing, decimating the photography profession. Or so we all thought. It seemed those people unable to adapt their businesses were swept away completely. I remember attending an ASMP meeting on the “state of the industry.” It ended up being one long massive rant about how “digital” had ruined everyone’s lives. By the end of it I was so tired of all the whining that I felt like standing up and shouting for everyone to keep it together and have some hope! I wasn’t really one of them, because I had never shot a commercial job with film (and I still haven’t). I didn’t need to adapt because I didn’t know any other way.
The world didn’t end back in 2004. Photographers changed over to digital. The cameras improved. People started using their darkrooms to store all of their hard drives. And everyone was still making money. Yes, it took some getting used to, but now we’re to a point where everyone automatically assumes you are going to shoot the job digital.
I think the publishing world is going through the same thing. They’re discovering that people get most of their information from the internet, rather than print. And for the most part, it’s free. I don’t have a crystal ball, but here’s what I think will happen: Newspapers are going to be the first to go. At least their print versions. Magazines will be next, although they won’t completely disappear. I predict there will be innovations on the web that will make it easier to read media online. They’ll still print a few issues a year, but probably only for their subscribers. Subscriptions will gradually become electronic and people will read magazines with some sort of gadget. Exquisite content will create opportunities for e-publishers to charge electronic subscription fees. There will be a lot of free stuff out there, but the good stuff will cost money. Pricing models for advertisers and content providers will adapt, not go away.
If you look back through the ages, you can see a pattern. Change has come. We’ve either got to get on the train, or be left in the station.
